Net revenues totaled BRL 66.1 billion, surpassing our estimate by just 1% on higher diesel sales.
Lifting costs (USD 12.98/bbl) increased 4% quarterly, reflecting mostly the BRL appreciation in the quarter and maintenance costs at Marlim, Albacora, Cherne and Marimbá fields, while the refining cost decreased to USD 4.27/bbl from USD 4.76 in 1Q12 on less maintenance work.
The positive surprise was in the imported products costs, which seem to have decreased significantly, allowing the Refining segment to post almost the same gross profit as for 4Q11, despite the 8% increase in oil prices. According to Petrobras, the mix of imported diesel in the sold volume decreased due to the seasonally weaker sales. Most of the imported volume in 1Q12 remained in the inventories to supply the
seasonally stronger demand in 2Q12.
In our view, Petrobras’s strategy was to sell more diesel produced locally, as the cost is lower.
However, understanding the real impact of the oil products imports in the next quarter, when diesel consumption increases, is key to ensuring the recurrence of this good number. It is worth noting that the Special Participation Tax rose in line with oil, confirming the recurrence of the increase observed in the 4Q11 results. SG&A decreased quarterly and was in line with our forecast, reflecting the absence of non-recurring items generally present in the fourth quarter.
EBITDA came in at BRL 16.5 billion, surpassing our and the market’s expectations by 14%.
Net income reached BRL 9.4 billion, while we were expecting BRL 7.8 billion, due to the better-than-expected operational performance.
-->> better results were only possible because of the reduction in oil products import expenses, particularly diesel. However, the seasonal increase in demand towards second and third quarters will likely bring that pressure back, as the oil-price drop will likely be offset by a weaker BRL.
The only potential positive short-term catalyst to the story is the possible increase in diesel and gasoline prices, if it should be above CIDE, to which we attribute falling probability by the day.
