Em relação a cotação, volatilidade e risco, vale a pena entender o mindset do vovô Buffett....
Stock prices will always be far more volatile than cash-equivalent holdings. Over the long term, however, currency-denominated instruments are riskier investments – far riskier investments – than widely-diversified stock portfolios that are bought over time and that are owned in a manner invoking only token fees and commissions. THAT LESSON HAS NOT CUSTOMARILY BEEN TAUGHT IN BUSINESS SCHOOLS, WHERE VOLATILITY IS ALMOST UNIVERSALLY USED AS A PROXY FOR RISK. THOUGH THIS PEDAGOGIC ASSUMPTION MAKES FOR EASY TEACHING, IT IS DEAD WRONG: VOLATILITY IS FAR FROM SYNONYMOUS WITH RISK. Popular formulas that equate the two terms lead students, investors and CEOs astray.
It is true, of course, that owning equities for a day or a week or a year is far riskier (in both nominal and purchasing-power terms) than leaving funds in cash-equivalents. That is relevant to certain investors – say, investment banks – whose viability can be threatened by declines in asset prices and which might be forced to sell securities during depressed markets. Additionally, any party that might have meaningful near-term needs for funds should keep appropriate sums in Treasuries or insured bank deposits.
For the great majority of investors, however, who can – and should – invest with a multi-decade horizon, quotational declines are unimportant. Their focus should remain fixed on attaining significant gains in purchasing power over their investing lifetime. For them, a diversified equity portfolio, bought over time, will prove far less risky than dollar-based securities.
If the investor, instead, fears PRICE VOLATILITY, ERRONEOUSLY VIEWING IT AS A MEASURE OF RISK, HE MAY, IRONICALLY, END UP DOING SOME VERY RISKY THINGS. Recall, if you will, the pundits who six years ago bemoaned falling stock prices and advised investing in “safe” Treasury bills or bank certificates of deposit. People who heeded this sermon are now earning a pittance on sums they had previously expected would finance a pleasant retirement. (The S&P 500 was then below 700; now it is about 2,100.) If not for their fear of meaningless price volatility, these investors could have assured themselves of a good income for life by simply buying a very low-cost index fund whose dividends would trend upward over the years and whose principal would grow as well (with many ups and downs, to be sure).
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