Economist: Os perigos de tentar acertar o timing do mercado
comentada em 30/12/2018 02:00

The perils of trying to time the market - Buttonwood

Depois de discutir a enorme dificuldade de tentar acertar o timing do mercado, até mesmo para os investidores mais sofisticados, a Economist aconselha -- adivinha só? -- a adoção de portfólio balanceado no buy-and-hold (ainda que eles sugiram a venda de ativos cujos preços subam demais, a fim de manter o equilíbrio entre os objetivos, algo que a filosofia Bastter proíbe).

Destaques:

"Over the whole period (1900-2015), returns to the market-timing strategy were scarcely better than to a buy-and-hold portfolio with a constant 100% stockholding. And over the latter half (1958-2015), returns were no better at all."
...
"But there is a simpler form of market timing, which has some empirical support: rebalancing. It requires investors to decide first how they want to divide their investments. It could be, say, an equal split between American and non-American stocks. The precise weights matter less than that they are stuck to. That requires regular rebalancing to restore the original weights. It means shedding assets that have risen a lot in favour of those that have gone up by less.

The virtue of rebalancing is that it is simple. You are less likely to make a costly mistake than if you follow a more complex strategy."