Sobre a Cleiton: "quase nunca as pessoas mais talentosas alcançam os picos mais altos de sucesso"
comentada em 25/07/2021 16:29

Artigo que explica o acaso no sucesso. Vai ao encontro do que o Bastter fala.
"Quase nunca as pessoas mais talentosas alcançam os picos mais altos de sucesso, sendo ultrapassadas por individuos medíocres mas sensivelmente mais sortudos"
Está em inglês:

The largely dominant meritocratic paradigm of highly competitive Western cultures is rooted on the belief that success is due mainly, if not exclusively, to personal qualities such as talent, intelligence, skills, efforts or risk taking. Sometimes, we are willing to admit that a certain degree of luck could also play a role in achieving significant material success. But, as a matter of fact, it is rather common to underestimate the importance of external forces in individual successful stories. It is very well known that intelligence or talent exhibit a Gaussian distribution among the population, whereas the distribution of wealth - considered a proxy of success - follows typically a power law (Pareto law). Such a discrepancy between a Normal distribution of inputs, with a typical scale, and the scale invariant distribution of outputs, suggests that some hidden ingredient is at work behind the scenes. In this paper, with the help of a very simple agent-based model, we suggest that such an ingredient is just randomness. In particular, we show that, if it is true that some degree of talent is necessary to be successful in life, almost never the most talented people reach the highest peaks of success, being overtaken by mediocre but sensibly luckier individuals.
Estudo completo:

[1802.07068] Talent vs Luck: the role of randomness in success and failure